Agricultural Product Derivatives - China

China

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach €10.78tn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.17% resulting in a projected total amount of €12.00tn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to €0.01 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (€11,430.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 2.00bn by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

Amidst the rapid economic growth in China, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market has been experiencing significant developments.

Customer preferences: Investors in China are increasingly turning to Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market volatility. With a growing interest in alternative investments, Agricultural Product Derivatives offer an attractive option for those looking to capitalize on price movements in the commodities market.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in China is the increasing demand for futures contracts on agricultural commodities. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including the rising importance of China as a global agricultural producer and consumer, as well as the government's efforts to develop the derivatives market. Additionally, the growing sophistication of market participants and the increasing liquidity in the market have further fueled this trend.

Local special circumstances: China's unique position as a major player in the global agricultural market has had a significant impact on the development of Agricultural Product Derivatives. The country's large population and diverse agricultural sector provide ample opportunities for investors to participate in the market. Furthermore, government initiatives to promote the use of derivatives for risk management have helped create a conducive environment for growth in the market.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in China is also influenced by broader macroeconomic factors. Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and government policies play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics. As China continues to undergo economic transformation and liberalization, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is poised to benefit from these developments.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.