The market for Tobacco Products is constituted here by (filtered) Cigarettes, Smoking Tobacco (fine-cut tobacco, pipe tobacco), Cigars and cigarillos, and E-Cigarettes. Snuff, chewing tobacco and heat-not-burn products are not included at the moment nor are untaxed tobacco products. The five most important producers worldwide are the China National Tobacco Corporation, Philip Morris International (PMI), British American Tobacco (BAT), Japan Tobacco International (JTI) and Imperial Tobacco.
The market is divided into the following segments:
The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit, and sales channels. To give a better representation of per capita figures, the population considered is 15 years and above.
To enable a better comparison between Cigarettes and Cigars and loose tobacco in terms of per capita consumption and price per unit, the latter's volume is denoted in 1,000 kgs (total consumption) and grams (per capita consumption, price per unit).
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(Filtered) Cigarettes such as Marlboro Reds, Marlboro Golds, Camel Blues, etc
Smoking Tobacco (fine-cut and pipe tobacco) such as Marlboro Gold Fine Cut Hand Rolling Tobacco, Gold Leaf Hand Rolling Tobacco, etc
Cigars and cigarillos such as Davidoff Nicaragua Diadema, Rock Patel Sixty Sixty, etc
E-cigarettes and e-liquids such as Elf Bar BC5000, ZOVOO DRAGBAR B5000, etc
Untaxed tobacco products such as illicit cigarettes
Smokeless tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco) such as Oliver Twist Arctic Chewing Tobacco, Oden’s Original Portion CB – Single Tin, etc
The tobacco industry did not let the pandemic hamper its operations. In fact, the industry was one of the few that actually benefited from the pandemic, with Phillip Morris International (PMI) and British American Tobacco (BAT), two of the largest players in the market, generating revenues as high as US$82 billion and US$35 billion in 2021, respectively.
The stay-at-home orders were one of the key factors that drove the industry's growth, which, coupled with pandemic-related anxiety, resulted in many consumers stockpiling products such as cigarettes. Additionally, governments in various countries across the globe deemed tobacco products as "essential" commodities during lockdowns, which further boosted sales.
On a broader level, however, tobacco products have been the target of regulatory tightening for decades. Smoking rates have decreased as a result of stricter laws and consumers' growing health awareness. Nevertheless, companies continue to be profitable, as the decrease in volume sales is being offset by higher prices. Moreover, companies are looking to diversify their product offerings through various acquisitions, hoping to attract the younger generation with products such as newer variations of e-cigarettes.
Sources for the revenue figures: British American Tobacco, Annual Report 2021, page 9, and Phillip Morris International, Annual Report 2021, page 65.
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Tobacco products, namely, Cigarettes, Cigars, Smoking Tobacco, and E-Cigarettes.
Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.