Agricultural Product Derivatives - Southern Europe

Southern Europe

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach €0.97tn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 1.98% resulting in a projected total amount of €1.07tn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to €0.32 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (€11,310.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 2.99m by 2029.

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Región

Comparación de regiones

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Analyst Opinion

The Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Southern Europe is experiencing a shift in customer preferences, trends, and local special circumstances that are shaping its development.

Customer preferences: Customers in Southern Europe are increasingly turning to Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to diversify their investment portfolios and hedge against market volatility. The convenience of trading these financial instruments online has also contributed to their popularity among retail investors in the region.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Southern Europe is the growing interest in derivatives based on olive oil prices. As olive oil is a key agricultural product in the region, market participants are closely monitoring factors such as weather conditions and harvest forecasts to speculate on price movements. Additionally, there is a rising demand for derivatives linked to wine and citrus fruits, reflecting the importance of these commodities in Southern Europe.

Local special circumstances: Southern Europe's unique climate and agricultural landscape play a significant role in shaping the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in the region. Factors such as droughts, pest infestations, and government subsidies can have a direct impact on the prices of agricultural commodities, thereby influencing derivative markets. Moreover, the region's strong cultural ties to agriculture and food production contribute to the popularity of agricultural derivatives among local investors.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The economic stability of Southern European countries, as well as broader trends in global commodity markets, are key underlying macroeconomic factors driving the development of Agricultural Product Derivatives in the region. Fluctuations in exchange rates, trade agreements, and geopolitical events can all impact the prices of agricultural commodities and, by extension, their derivatives. Additionally, regulatory changes and advancements in technology are shaping the landscape of derivative trading in Southern Europe.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.