Video Downloads, also called Electronic-Sell-Through (EST) or Download-to-own, describe premium digital video content that is purchased in a one-time transaction and is permanently accessible as a digital video file through cloud-based or offline storage. Top vendors of such services are, for example, iTunes, Google Play or Amazon Prime Video.
Video content that is purchased in a one-time transaction
Unlike the Music Downloads market, the demand for video downloads is not completely strangled by the possibility to access the same content by streaming it. This paradox arises from a fundamental distinction in consumers’ expectations towards both content types. While Music Streaming services need to offer all kinds of music without leaving any gaps, Video Streaming services can only cover selected parts of genres and studios or distinguish themselves with own productions. This circumstance, combined with geo-blocking, makes it necessary to stick to downloading videos.
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the Video-on-Demand market. Video-on-demand is defined as premium over-the-top video-on-demand (VoD) content distributed over the internet. This includes pay-per-view (TVoD), video downloads (EST), and video streaming (SVoD). All monetary figures refer to consumer spending on digital goods or subscriptions in the respective market. This spending factors in discounts, margins, and taxes.
Modeling approach / market size:
The market size is determined through a bottom-up approach. We use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey), as well as performance factors (e.g., user penetration, price per product, usage) to analyze the markets. To estimate the market size for each country individually, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific industry associations, such as various macroeconomic indicators, historical developments, current trends, and reported performance indicators of key market players. In particular, we consider average prices and annual purchase frequencies.
We apply a variety of forecasting techniques, depending on the behavior of the relevant market. For instance, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing are well suited for forecasting digital products and services due to the non-linear growth of technology adoption. The main drivers are GDP per capita, consumer spending per capita, and 4G coverage.
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.