Hot Drinks - Kenya

Rising employment levels have driven up caffeination demand across the board. At the same time, increasing discretionary spending power has fueled the appetite for indulgence among consumers as well as a desire for novel experiences, which in turn has driven premiumization and sophistication.

As mostly agriculturally sourced products, organic and fairly traded Hot Drinks products have gained significant traction in the market. Consumers are increasingly conscious of the environmental and social impact of their purchasing decisions, leading to a greater demand for sustainably produced products.

The Hot Drinks market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by factors such as expanding consumption in emerging markets, the demand for premium and specialty products, and the evolving preferences of the younger generation. However, challenges such as climate change and sustainability concerns remain areas of focus for industry stakeholders.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on private Household spendings on Hot Drinks. At-home market data covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, and similar sales channels. Out-of-home market data includes all sales in hotels and restaurants, sales by catering companies, as well as sales in cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments.
In the out-of-home market, the price always refers to the price per kilogram of the beverage consumed, regardless of other components in the finished beverage.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as production data, region, and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Hot Drinks market with a projected steady growth.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.