Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on market capitalization/ market volume/ number of trades/ number of listed domestic companies data within the stock market.
Modeling approach / Market size:
Market sizes are determined by a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data from Company Insights, World Bank, the Federation of Exchanges as well as stock exchanges, and publicly available databases. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer price index (CPI), total investment (% of GDP), trade (% of GDP), household income, internet penetration, deposit interest rate, lending interest rate, central bank interest rate, unemployment rate, internet penetration and online banking penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.
Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In the market, we use both the HOLT-damped Trend method and the ARIMA method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita, consumer price index (CPI), and central bank interest rate.
Additional notes:
The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war is considered at a country-specific level.
