Emission Trading System - Germany

Germany

The government income in the Emission Trading System market is projected to reach €11.55bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.55% resulting in a projected total amount of €13.10bn by 2029.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest government income is reached in Germany (€11,550.00m in 2024).
In the Emission Trading System market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 12 by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

Germany has been a pioneer in the implementation of the Emission Trading System market, setting the stage for significant developments in this sector. Customer preferences in the Emission Trading System market in Germany are heavily influenced by a strong emphasis on sustainability and environmental consciousness.

German consumers and businesses are increasingly looking for ways to reduce their carbon footprint and comply with stringent emission regulations. This drive towards sustainability has led to a growing demand for emission credits and offsets within the market. Trends in the Emission Trading System market in Germany indicate a shift towards more innovative and tech-savvy solutions.

With the rise of digital platforms and blockchain technology, there is a noticeable trend towards increased transparency and efficiency in trading emission credits. This digital transformation is not only streamlining processes but also attracting a new wave of investors looking to capitalize on this evolving market. Local special circumstances in Germany, such as the country's strong commitment to renewable energy and ambitious climate targets, play a significant role in shaping the Emission Trading System market.

The phase-out of coal power plants and the promotion of clean energy sources have created a favorable environment for the growth of emission trading. Additionally, Germany's position as a key player in the European Union Emission Trading System further solidifies its influence in the market. Underlying macroeconomic factors, such as government policies and global market trends, also impact the Emission Trading System market in Germany.

The stability of the EU ETS regulations, as well as the overall economic conditions in the region, can influence trading activities and investor confidence. Moreover, international collaborations and agreements on climate change mitigation efforts can have ripple effects on the market dynamics in Germany.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.