Agricultural Product Derivatives - Worldwide

Worldwide

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach €30.30tn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 1.73% resulting in a projected total amount of €33.01tn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to €0.01 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (€11,310.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 2.67bn by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

The Agricultural Product Derivatives market continues to evolve and expand globally, driven by various factors shaping the demand and supply dynamics.

Customer preferences: Traders and investors in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market are increasingly looking for diverse investment opportunities to hedge against price volatility and speculate on future price movements. This has led to a growing interest in agricultural commodity derivatives as a way to diversify portfolios and manage risk exposure.

Trends in the market: In the United States, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is experiencing a surge in trading volume, particularly in corn and soybean futures. This trend can be attributed to the significant role of the U. S. in global agricultural production and trade, making these derivatives popular instruments for market participants looking to capitalize on price fluctuations in these key commodities.

Local special circumstances: In Brazil, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is influenced by the country's position as a major exporter of soybeans and sugar. As a result, derivatives linked to these commodities are actively traded on local exchanges, reflecting the importance of agriculture to the Brazilian economy. Additionally, government policies and weather conditions play a crucial role in shaping market trends in this region.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The global Agricultural Product Derivatives market is also impacted by broader macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, interest rates, and geopolitical events. For instance, fluctuations in currency values can affect the competitiveness of agricultural exports, thereby influencing derivative prices. Moreover, changes in interest rates can impact the cost of holding derivative positions, leading to adjustments in trading strategies by market participants. Geopolitical tensions and trade agreements can also create uncertainty in agricultural markets, driving volatility in derivative prices.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.