Macroeconomic Indicators - Armenia

Regional Economic Growth and Disparities: Emerging economies in Asia are seeing substantial GDP growth, significantly driving global expansion. In contrast, Europe and North America are experiencing slower but steady growth. These differences reflect varying levels of economic development and influence investment opportunities. Understanding these regional disparities is crucial for making informed investment and policy decisions.

Global Economic Interconnectivity: The global economy is highly interconnected, meaning economic issues in one region can quickly spread to others. A slowdown in a major economy can lead to reduced international trade and market instability. This interconnectedness highlights the importance of global cooperation to manage economic challenges and maintain overall stability. However, globalization in its current form is threatened by new tariffs and similar protectionist measures aimed at nurturing local industries at the expense of international competitors.

Challenges in Public Finance Management: Governments face significant challenges in managing public finances, particularly during economic downturns. Balancing budgets and managing debt are critical tasks that require careful planning and strategy. Effective fiscal management is essential for ensuring economic stability and supporting sustainable growth.

Inflation and Its Impact: Inflation reduces consumers' purchasing power and impacts business profitability by increasing costs. Rising prices make everyday goods and services more expensive, while businesses must navigate higher operational costs. Policymakers must carefully manage inflation to balance economic growth with price stability.

Data coverage:

The dataset encompasses data from 152 countries. The charts depict the situation of each country in six different domains. These domains are socioeconomic indicators, macroeconomic indicators, health indicators, digital and connectivity indicators, consumption indicators, as well as logistics and transport indicators. Within these domains, various segments are covered, including demography, economic measures, economic inequality, employment, consumption, health determinants, and much more.

Modeling approach:

The composition of each domain follows a comprehensive approach that combines both top-down and bottom-up methodologies, with each domain and segment being guided by a specific rationale. To evaluate the situation of these six domains within each country, we rely on pertinent indicators and data from reputable international institutions, local national statistical offices, industry associations, and leading private institutions. Additionally, we undertake data processing procedures to address issues such as missing timelines, outliers, and data inconsistency. Our data processing incorporates advanced statistical techniques, including interpolation, exponential moving weighted average, and the Savitzky-Golay filter. These methods contribute to the refinement and enhancement of data quality.

Forecasts:

In our forecasting process, a wide range of statistical techniques is utilized based on the characteristics of the markets. For example, the S-curve function is employed to forecast the adoption of new technology, products, and services, aligning the forecast model with the theory of innovation adoption. Additionally, the data is forecasted using ARIMA with and without seasonality considerations, exponential trend smoothing, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), with the option to incorporate adjustment factors when necessary. These techniques enable accurate and reliable forecast methods tailored to the unique characteristics of the data in each market and country.

Additional notes:

The data is updated twice per year or every time there is a significant change in their dynamics. The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and of the Russia/Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.