Voting intention for European Parliament 2024

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As of October 2023, The center-right European People's Party (EPP) are set to win the next European Parliament election, which takes place in June 2024. The EPP have recovered from a period in late-2021 and early-2022 when they were neck-in-neck with their closest rivals, the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group, with the center-right now having a roughly 4 percentage point lead. Among the other groupings in the European Parliament, no group has managed to achieve more than 12 percent of voting intentions in the latest poll, with right wing European Conservatives & Reformists group and the far-right Identity and Democracy group both on 11.3 percent.

The center-left Greens/European Free Alliance have steadily declined from their high at the last election of 11.7 percent, to now only securing 7.5 percent, while the Left group have experienced a smaller decline from 6.5 percent to 5.9 percent, losing the gains that they picked up during the pandemic period. One in every eight voters says they intend to vote for a candidate not included in any of the major groups in the EP as of October 2023.

How do voters decide who to vote for in European Parliament elections?

Voting intentions for the European Parliament are more complex and hard to interpret than those for national elections. This is because the European elections encompass 27 countries, with an electorate of around 400 million people, across many linguistic and cultural boundaries. Many voters view the EP elections as being lower stakes than national elections, meaning that they are more willing to use it as a 'protest vote' or to lend their vote to the parties of the extremes. As the European Parliament lacks jurisdiction in the policy areas which define most national elections - taxation, public services, foreign policy - voters instead often use the vote to express their view on the European project itself, with voters of the populist and nationalist right (ECR and ID) coming out particularly strongly against further EU integration and expansion.

The issues which matter to voters in 2024

While the link between European Parliament elections and policymaking at the European level is obscure to many voters - parliament does not have the power to initiate legislation, but instead votes on proposals of the European Commission - there are certain issues which are set to dominate the 2024 elections. The EU's economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic is set to be a key issue of contention, as many voters in northern European countries have viewed the NextGenEU stimulus package as being a subsidy for governments of southern European countries who have had persistent fiscal problems since the Eurozone crisis of the 2010s. The EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is also likely to feature in the 2024 campaign, as the EU has been one of the strongest financial and military supporters of Ukraine, as well as promising to fast-track the eastern European country for EU membership. While Ukraine joining the EU continues to command support of the majority of citizens, certain countries in central and eastern Europe are more divided on this issue, notably Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria.

Monthly voting intention for the next European Parliament election from 2019 to 2024, by party

Month	EPP (center-right)	S&D (center-left)	ECR (right)	Identity and Democracy (far-right)	Reform Europe (center)	Unaffiliated & Non-inscrits (various)	Greens/EFA (center-left/left)	The Left Group (left/far-left)
2024-03	23%	18.4%	11.2%	11.2%	10.6%	9.8%	8.1%	7.7%
2024-02	22.6%	18.9%	11.7%	11.6%	9.5%	10.7%	7.4%	7.5%
2024-01	22.6%	18.4%	11.3%	12.3%	9.5%	12.1%	6.9%	6.8%
2023-12	22.8%	17.9%	11.1%	12.1%	10.4%	13.1%	7%	5.5%
2023-11	22.4%	18.4%	11%	11.7%	10.7%	12.8%	7.2%	5.7%
2023-10	22.4%	18.5%	11.3%	11.3%	10.5%	12.6%	7.5%	5.9%
2023-09	21.3%	19.1%	11.8%	10.8%	9.9%	13%	7%	6.9%
2023-08	21.6%	19.5%	11.8%	10.5%	10.2%	13%	7.1%	6.1%
2023-07	20.6%	19.5%	11.5%	10.6%	10.5%	13.1%	6.9%	7.2%
2023-06	21.4%	18.7%	11.7%	10.5%	10.4%	13.4%	7%	6.9%
2023-05	20.7%	18.8%	11.7%	9.6%	10.8%	13.7%	6.9%	7.5%
2023-04	21.4%	18.2%	11.6%	9.6%	10.4%	13.8%	7%	7.8%
2023-03	21.6%	19%	11.4%	9%	11.2%	13.1%	7.3%	7.3%
2023-02	21.7%	18.7%	11.5%	9.2%	11.1%	13.2%	7.3%	7.1%
2023-01	21.5%	18.5%	11.5%	9%	11.3%	12.9%	7.9%	7.4%
2022-12	21.1%	18.7%	11.6%	8.9%	11.5%	13.3%	7.6%	7.1%
2022-11	21.2%	18.8%	11.2%	8.9%	11.7%	12.7%	8.1%	7.2%
2022-10	21.6%	18.3%	11.3%	8.7%	12%	11.8%	8.1%	8%
2022-09	21.8%	18.6%	11.3%	8.5%	12.1%	11.9%	7.8%	8%
2022-08	21.8%	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	11.3%	13%	8.6%	7.7%
2022-07	21.5%	19.3%	10.5%	8.6%	11.3%	12%	8.9%	7.9%
2022-06	20.7%	19.3%	11.1%	8.5%	11.9%	12.3%	8.5%	7.7%
2022-05	20.2%	19.7%	11.1%	9.1%	11.6%	12.6%	7.8%	7.9%
2022-04	19.2%	19.7%	11.1%	9.2%	12.1%	12.8%	7.4%	8.5%
2022-03	20%	19.9%	11%	8.5%	12.3%	13.6%	7.1%	7.6%
2022-02	20.2%	19.5%	11%	8.6%	11.7%	14.6%	7.1%	7.3%
2022-01	20.4%	20%	10.2%	9.1%	12%	14.5%	7%	6.8%
2021-12	20.7%	20.6%	10.3%	8.8%	11.9%	13.8%	7.2%	6.7%
2021-11	19.2%	20.4%	10.3%	10.4%	13.6%	11.7%	7.4%	7%
2021-10	19.5%	20.7%	10.7%	10.2%	13%	11.8%	7.2%	6.9%
2021-09	20.3%	20.3%	10.5%	10.3%	12%	12.1%	7.2%	7.3%
2021-08	20.2%	19.7%	10.3%	10.7%	12.4%	12.2%	7.4%	7.1%
2021-07	21.5%	18.1%	10.3%	10.6%	11.8%	12.9%	7.6%	7.2%
2021-06	21.2%	17.9%	10.3%	10.6%	11.8%	13%	8%	7.2%
2021-05	20.6%	18%	10.5%	10.4%	11.4%	12.1%	9.1%	7.8%
2021-04	20.3%	18.3%	10.5%	10.6%	11.3%	12.5%	8.5%	7.9%
2021-03	21.6%	18.7%	10.2%	10.8%	11.2%	11.2%	8.2%	8%
2021-02	23.1%	18.9%	10.3%	10.8%	11.1%	10.4%	7.5%	7.9%
2021-01	24.4%	18.6%	10.1%	10.5%	10.9%	9.8%	7.5%	8.2%
2020-12	24.1%	18.9%	10.2%	10.5%	10.9%	9.5%	7.5%	8.4%
2020-11	24.8%	18.5%	9.5%	10.5%	10.9%	9.8%	7.7%	8.2%
2020-10	25%	18.4%	9.9%	10.6%	10.8%	9.6%	7.7%	8.1%
2020-09	24.4%	17.9%	9.7%	11%	11.4%	9.8%	7.8%	7.9%
2020-08	25%	18.3%	9.6%	10.9%	11.5%	9.3%	7.4%	8.1%
2020-07	25.3%	18%	9.4%	10.8%	11.5%	9.8%	7.2%	8%
2020-06	25.7%	17.9%	9.5%	10.9%	11.6%	8.7%	7.4%	8.3%
2020-05	25.2%	18%	9.6%	11.1%	11.3%	9.4%	7.2%	8.2%
2020-04	25.3%	18.5%	9.8%	11.4%	10.9%	8.6%	7.2%	8.2%
2020-03	24.1%	18.2%	10%	11.8%	10.7%	8.7%	8%	8.5%
2020-02	22.7%	18%	9.7%	12.5%	10.9%	8.7%	8.4%	9.1%
2020-01	22.8%	17.6%	9.7%	12.9%	11.6%	8.2%	8.5%	8.7%
2019-12	20.9%	18.8%	12.4%	11.9%	11.8%	7.9%	8.2%	8.1%
2019-11	20.5%	18.6%	12.1%	12.1%	12.4%	7.9%	8.4%	8%
2019-10	20.4%	17.8%	10%	11.3%	13.4%	11.4%	8.7%	7%
2019-09	19.7%	19.5%	9.7%	11.3%	12.6%	11.4%	8.7%	7.1%
2019-08	20%	19%	9.6%	11.4%	12.9%	11.5%	8.7%	6.9%
2019-07	19.3%	19%	9.3%	11.5%	12.8%	12.1%	9.4%	6.6%
2019-06	19%	18.9%	9.8%	11.4%	13.3%	10.3%	10.3%	6.9%
2019 Election	21%	18.5%	8.2%	10.8%	13%	10.3%	11.7%	6.5%